There are a few of us that would believe outlandish lies. People have differing beliefs on Big Foot’s reality, whether we landed on the moon, or if COVID-19 is a health pandemic. What makes the belief of those concepts different from believing in God the Father? The fascinating relationship between all of these beliefs is humanity’s inability to comprehend rare occurrences. What we often refer to as possible outcomes instead of probable outcomes is hard to imagine. You can watch Hector Barbossa learn the difference from Captain Jack Sparrow.

Possible vs. Probable

Because events are not probable does not make them a fairy tale or a hoax. John 20:24-29 provides the story of Thomas and his inability to discern the difference between probable and possible concerning his faith in Christ’s resurrection.

But Thomas, one of the twelve, called Didymus, was not with them when Jesus came. The other disciples therefore said unto him, We have seen the Lord. But he said unto them, Except I shall see in his hands the print of the nails, and put my finger into the print of the nails, and thrust my hand into his side, I will not believe.

In verses 26-28, Thomas is allowed to see and touch the Savior’s hands. Finally, in verse 29, Jesus provides the rebuke and definition of faith.

Jesus saith unto him, Thomas, because thou hast seen me, thou hast believed: blessed are they that have not seen, and yet have believed.

Blessed are those who can understand the possible and believe even though they will most likely never experience the event. Here is the big difference between possible and probable. Probable events occur enough that most of humanity can experience the probability.¹ On the other hand, possible events are so rare that they can seem like magic when they occur. This rarity of occurrence opens the window to doubt and the creation of plausible arguments like a conspiracy, hoax, fairy tale, or delusion.

Jesus understood the dilemma of Thomas' need concerning the rest of humankind’s belief in Christ. The rarity of Christ’s resurrected visit on earth could not depend on each of us having Thomas' experience. Jesus then defined how faith works with probable events, ‘blessed are they that have not seen, and yet have believed.'

How do we substantiate a truth that is a rare occurrence?

If possible events make humans vulnerable to lies, how do we find a way to justify the reality of a highly unlikely but possible event? The secret is to look to tools like history, mathematics, physics, philosophy, religion, and theology as the supporting secondary data that helps us know that the event is possible. In physics, we use mathematics to justify the existence of gravitational waves that then leads scientists on a nearly 100-year quest of faith to build a tool that provides us a view of these waves. In the case of religious belief, we look to the history of God’s people in scripture to substantiate the possibility of God and the reality of Zion. We then work for centuries to create a Zion that can welcome God again.

Is faith the ability to differentiate the possible from the lie?

Can faith be viewed as an understanding of probability? Can faith be the act to live as if the possible will happen? I think that Almas is saying as much in Alma 32:21 ‘faith is not to have a perfect knowledge of things; therefore if ye have faith ye hope for things which are not seen, which are true.'

• perfect knowledge: an event that is experienced in our lifetimes.
• hope for things which are not seen, which are true: seeing the possible event that is not experienced but as a reality nonetheless (faith).

Alma, in Alma 32:34-36, then takes the time to help us see the secondary data that supports faith in Christ and His gospel.

And now, behold, is your knowledge perfect? Yea, your knowledge is perfect in that thing, and your faith is dormant; and this because you know, for ye know that the word hath swelled your souls, and ye also know that it hath sprouted up, that your understanding doth begin to be enlightened, and your mind doth begin to expand. O then, is not this real? I say unto you, Yea, because it is light; and whatsoever is light, is good, because it is discernible, therefore ye must know that it is good; and now behold, after ye have tasted this light is your knowledge perfect? Behold I say unto you, Nay; neither must ye lay aside your faith, for ye have only exercised your faith to plant the seed that ye might try the experiment to know if the seed was good.

As I shared earlier, faith is wrapped up in the reality of time. Just as we depend on time to explain probability, faith requires us to act in the knowledge that a believed outcome will eventually occur. Our faith allows us to believe in results that seem unlikely to others but can be sure to us.²

Are faith and probability so similar that we could simply interchange the words? Let’s look at two examples.

• Alma 32:21 as a probability: probability is not to have a perfect knowledge of things; therefore, if we have probability, we hope for things which are not experienced in our lifetimes, which are true.
• Introducton to probability as faith (chapter 2): We have introduced faith as a language for expressing our degrees of belief or uncertainties about events. Whenever we observe new evidence (i.e., obtain data), we acquire information that may affect our faith. A new observation that is consistent with an existing belief could sustain our faith, while a surprising observation could throw that faith into question. How should we update our faith in light of the evidence we observe?

I believe that faith and probability are often interchangeable words and concepts. We must understand how to know truths that we will never or rarely see. We must understand how to quantify our faith based on external secondary evidences, also called prior beliefs.³ Can we see that we use either to act as if a future outcome is sure as we endure in time. Perhaps letting both be interchangeable words for the other can open our minds to deeper understandings of each.

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• faith
• probability
• truth